Bitcoin Cycle Index 2026 — Bull/Bear Market Indicator | ExchangeRank
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Bitcoin Cycle Index

8-indicator composite score — where is Bitcoin in its 4-year market cycle?

Historical Chart

Historical Cycle Reference

CycleHalvingTop DateTop PriceBottom DateBottom PriceGain
Cycle 12012-11-282013-11-29$1k2015-01-14$152x81
Cycle 22016-07-092017-12-17$20k2018-12-15$3kx131
Cycle 32020-05-112021-11-10$69k2022-11-21$16kx22
Cycle 42024-04-202024-12-17$108k2026 Q1?TBDx7 (so far)

Methodology

The ExchangeRank Bitcoin Cycle Index is a weighted composite of 8 indicators, each percentile-normalized to a 0-100 scale using the full historical distribution (2011-present). The composite is a weighted average:

20%
Pi Cycle Top

111DMA / (2x350DMA) — crosses 1.0 at cycle tops

18%
2-Year MA Multiplier

Price deviation from 730-day moving average

14%
Fear & Greed Index

Market sentiment composite (alternative.me)

15%
Puell Multiple

Daily miner revenue vs 365-day average

12%
Halving Cycle Position

Deterministic 4-year cycle timing (sine wave)

8%
Hashrate Momentum

Network hashrate vs 365-day average

8%
Price vs ATH

Current price as fraction of running all-time high

5%
Tx Momentum

On-chain transaction count vs 90-day average

Data sources: blockchain.info (price, hashrate, miners revenue, on-chain transactions) and alternative.me (Fear & Greed Index, available since February 2018). Not financial advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Bitcoin Cycle Index (CBBI)?v
The Bitcoin Cycle Index is a composite indicator built from 8 on-chain and market metrics that estimates the current phase of Bitcoin's 4-year halving cycle. A score near 100 suggests a cycle top; near 0 suggests a cycle bottom.
What indicators does the ExchangeRank Bitcoin Cycle Index use?v
The index uses 8 indicators: Pi Cycle Top (20%), 2-Year MA Multiplier (18%), Fear & Greed (14%), Puell Multiple (15%), Halving Cycle Position (12%), Hashrate Momentum (8%), Price vs ATH (8%), and Transaction Momentum (5%).
Has the index correctly identified past Bitcoin cycle tops?v
The index is calibrated against historical cycle tops (Nov 2013, Dec 2017, Nov 2021, Dec 2024) and bottoms (Jan 2015, Dec 2018, Nov 2022). The original CBBI missed the Dec 2024 top; this index correctly identified it.
What score indicates a cycle top?v
Historically, scores above 85 have coincided with cycle tops. A score of 70-85 represents the Late Bull Market zone where taking profits becomes prudent.
How often is the data updated?v
The index is computed fresh on each page load (with a 1-hour server cache), pulling live data from blockchain.info (price, hashrate, miners revenue, transactions) and alternative.me (Fear & Greed). Data is typically delayed by 24 hours for daily metrics.
Is this financial advice?v
No. The Bitcoin Cycle Index is an educational tool for understanding Bitcoin's market cycle. It is not financial advice. Past performance of the indicators does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research.

The Bitcoin Cycle Index is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past indicator performance does not guarantee future results.